Implementasi Regresi Linear Untuk Memprediksi Hasil Impor Jumlah Barang Konsumsi Tahun 2021-2036

Penulis

  • Anthonius Universitas Universal
  • Charles Calvin King Luise Universitas Universal
  • Juven Prisselix Universitas Universal

Kata Kunci:

CRISP-DM, Data Mining, Impor, Prediksi

Abstrak

Import is a very important activity for a country and the value always changing every year, this thing can affect the foreign exchange of a country. When a country consumed a lot goods, it resulted in the country to do a lot of import activity as well. By doings so, the economy would be unbalanced and so the country will has a lot of debts. With that in mind, predicting the import activity in the future can be essential to prevent the country from being unbalanced in terms of economy. The purpose of this research is to predict the future import activity by using Linear Regression Algorithm and applying Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) method. This method uses to find the value of regression equation, as well as getting error analysis through accuracy of predictions using MAD, MSE, and MAPE using R. Studio software. The results that was obtained for 2021 amounted to 6745.298 tons and 2022 amounted to 6578.703 tons. As for the resulting error analysis, MAD value is 2652.901, MSE value is 10002316 and MAPE value is 255.17%.

Referensi

M. Idris, “Apa Itu Impor: Pengertian, Tujuan, dan Contohnya”, Kompas, April7,2021, [online]. Available: https://money.kompas.com/read/2021/04/07/080257426/apa-ituimporpengertian-tujuan-dan contohnya?page=all. [Accessed Nov 26, 2021].

D. Sensus, “Impor Barang Konsumsi, 1989-2020”, Badan Pusat Statistik [AccessedNov28,2021]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/statictable/2014/09/08/1040/impor-barang-konsumsi-1989-2020.html.

C. M. Annur, “Negara Asal Produk Impor Non-Migas Terbesar RI Berasal dari Tiongkok”, Databoks, May 24,2021, [online]. Available: https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2021/05/24/negara-asal-produk-impor-non-migas-terbesar-ri-berasal-dari-tiongkok. [Accessed Nov 26, 2021].

M. Sitepu, “Mungkinkah satu negara tak melakukan impor pangan atau produk lain?”, BBC News Indonesia, Nov 7,2018, [online]. Available: https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/indonesia46110555. [Accessed Nov26, 2021].

N. Kusumawati, F. Marisa, I. D. Wijaya, “Prediksi Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Amerika Dengan Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linear” Vol 2 No 3 Desember 2017.

G. N. Ayuni, and D. Fitrianah, “Penerapan Metode Regresi Linear Untuk Prediksi Penjualan Properti pada PT XYZ” vol. 14 no. 2, 2019.

R. Iswandari, L. A. Inke, and I. Hapsari “ANALISIS PERAMALAN PRODUKSI SINGKONG DAN KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL AGROINDUSTRI MOCAF DI PROVINSI LAMPUNG” Vol. 14 No. 1 Februari 2021.

Unduhan

Diterbitkan

10-12-2021

Cara Mengutip

Anthonius, Luise, C. C. K., & Prisselix, J. (2021). Implementasi Regresi Linear Untuk Memprediksi Hasil Impor Jumlah Barang Konsumsi Tahun 2021-2036. Journal of Digital Ecosystem for Natural Sustainability, 1(2), 73–77. Diambil dari https://journal.uvers.ac.id/index.php/jodens/article/view/38

Terbitan

Bagian

Artikel